反向思考打败不景气 THE WELL-TIMED STRATEGY 下载 pdf 百度网盘 epub 免费 2025 电子版 mobi 在线

"In The Well-Timed Strategy, Navarro provides a useful primer on business cycle risks and opportunities. Recognizing that business success depends most of all on human capital, he makes the crucial observation that the trough of a recession is the best time to find good people and the most important time to focus on retaining them. This and other insights about investment, production, and marketing give today’s executives a useful checklist for building and maintaining competitive advantage." –Michael Milken, Chairman, The Milken Institute

"Navarro’s conclusions should be an integral part of any management strategy playbook. Timing is indeed everything, and this book shows you how to master it for a successful business." –Bruce Karatz, Chairman and CEO, KB Home

"The business cycle bedevils all companies, yet few take it into account when plotting strategy. Peter Navarro provides a powerful set of tools, insights, and examples that will help every executive master the all-important art of timing." –Nicholas G. Carr, Author of Does IT Matter?

"What surprised me the most about this wonderful ‘Big Ideas’ book was not how incisive, useful, and far-ranging its strategic pre*ions are but rather how much fun I actually had reading it." –Mark Zandi, Chief Economist and Co-Founder of Economy.com

"The overriding approach to real estate success used to be ‘location, location, location,’ but it is an absolute fact that ‘timing, timing, timing’ is the ultimate driver behind maximizing return on investment. Peter Navarro illustrates that point with compelling examples of some of the best companies that have proactively navigated the business cycle as well as those that have faltered. The Well-Timed Strategy is an insightful look into the critical concept of knowing not just how to make a move, but more importantly, when." –Richard S. Ziman, Chairman and CEO, Arden Realty, Inc.

Introduction

Chapter 1: Strategies and Tactics of the Master Cyclist Executive

Chapter 2: Countercycling Your Capital Expenditures

Chapter 3: The Acquisitive Master Cyclist Buys Low and Sells High

Chapter 4: The Art of “Cherry Picking” and Other Well-Timed Tactics of the Human Resources Manager

Chapter 5: “Macromanaging” Your Production, Inventory, and Supply Chain

Chapter 6: Master Cyclist Marketing Through the Business Cycle Seasons

Chapter 7: Pricing the Cycle and Managing Credit and Account Receivables

Chapter 8: Proactive Profiting From Oil Price Spikes, Interest Rate Hikes, and Exchange Rate Risks

Chapter 9: When You Can’t Beat the Business Cycle, Hedge Its Risks!

Chapter 10: Surviving—and Prospering from—the Economic Shocks of War, Terrorism, Drought, and Disease

Chapter 11: The Master Cyclist’s Favorite Forecasting Tools

Concluding Thoughts

Appendix A: The Master Cyclist Project’s Treasure Trove of Data and All-Star Team

Appendix B: A Business Cycle Primer

Notes

Index

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作者简介：

Peter Navarro is a business professor at the University of California, Irvine.

　　He is author of the best-selling investment book If It’s Raining in Brazil, Buy Starbucks and the best-selling audio lecture course “Big Picture Investing: How, When, and Why the Stock Market Moves.” His weekly newsletter on the economy and stock market is distributed widely and is available to the public at www.peternavarro.com.

　　A widely sought-after and gifted public speaker, Navarro has appeared on Bloomberg TV, CNN, CNBC, NPR, and all three major network news shows. Navarro’s articles have appeared in a wide range of leading publications, including Barron’s, Business Week, Harvard Business Review, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Sloan Management Review.

　　Professor Navarro holds a B.A. from Tufts University and a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard.

书籍介绍

Most companies ignore one of their best opportunities for honing competitive advantage: the opportunity to proactively manage business cycles and macroeconomic turbulence. Despite the profound impact that the business cycle has on the fortunes and fate of so many businesses large and small--and the employees and investors that depend on them--not fa single book offers a comprehensive guide to strategically and tactically managing the business cycle. The Well-Timed Strategy shows how to manage not just the business cycle and industry cycles but also today's unprecedented level of macroeconomic turbulence. Peter Navarro shows how to align every facet of business strategy, tactics, and operations to reflect changing business conditions. Drawing on hundreds of examples, Navarro distills clear, simple management principles for managing economic upswings and downswings. Navarro addresses everything from inventory, production, and supply chain management to marketing, pricing, and long-term capital investment. Navarro presents examples from around the globe, ranging from Broadcom and Cemex to Paccar and Xilinx Chinese real estate developers to U.S. small caps. Clear, concise, and exceptionally readable, The Well-Timed Strategy makes complex macroeconomic forecasting easy to understand -- and even easier to act upon. Introduction xvii Chapter 1: Strategies and Tactics of the Master Cyclist Executive 1 Chapter 2: Countercycling Your Capital Expenditures 15 Chapter 3: The Acquisitive Master Cyclist Buys Low and Sells High 39 Chapter 4: The Art of "Cherry Picking" and Other Well-Timed Tactics of the Human Resources Manager 55 Chapter 5: "Macromanaging" Your Production, Inventory, and Supply Chain 75 Chapter 6: Master Cyclist Marketing Through the Business Cycle Seasons 95 Chapter 7: Pricing the Cycle and Managing Credit and Account Receivables 111 Chapter 8: Proactive Profiting From Oil Price Spikes, Interest Rate Hikes, and Exchange Rate Risks 129 Chapter 9: When You Can't Beat the Business Cycle, Hedge Its Risks! 149 Chapter 10: Surviving--and Prospering from--the Economic Shocks of War, Terrorism, Drought, and Disease 169 Chapter 11: The Master Cyclist's Favorite Forecasting Tools 185 Concluding Thoughts 211 Appendix A: The Master Cyclist Project's Treasure Trove of Data and All-Star Team 213 Appendix B: A Business Cycle Primer 223 Notes 233 Index 239